Reality Check People: here’s the Math of Mets to 90 wins and catching Nats at 90 wins

Hi kids.  Saw another site getting roped back in because the Mets swept the Giants.   IT’S OVER.

The Mets are 34-41 and 11 games back.  To keep this simple for everyone I am going to pretend that no other team but the Nationals exist and we’re going to ignore that the teams all play each other so somebody is gonna win when they do.   So lets assume the Marlins and Braves fold and ignore them.

To get to 90 wins, not a huge total, the Mets would need to go 56-31, which is .643 ball.   Right now only the Dodgers are playing that well in the entire National League.  That gets the Mets to 90.

For the Nats to win 90, the Nats have to go 45-42 which is  .517 ball

While the Nats are playing such awful baseball, it is fortunate that they are not losing those 52 games to the Braves nor Phillies, who are also playing so poorly that they don’t win 90 games either.

COULD it happen?  Yeah it COULD.  It also COULD happen with the Mets putting me in the starting rotation (I am not banned from baseball, so it’s more likely they use me than say Pete Rose.)

This is around the time that you imagine the Mets must be like 5 in back of the Wild Card.  WRONG.  They are 11.5, with lots of teams between them and the promised land – and those teams play each other.

And now you grasp for straws and talk about the 78 Yankees or the 2007 Phillies and all that.  Great, 2 examples in 125 years of baseball, 25 of those with 4 divisions, and another 25 with 6 divisions.

Anyone who understands math, and that apparently includes Sandy Alderson, knows it’s over.  Which I told you on May 16th.  Pay attention gang.