Let me ask you this. If next year the Mets fielded an infield of Ike, Reyes, Wright and a new second baseman who hit .320, best for third in the league, and third in doubles…but the guy was sub-par at defense would you take it? And what if he’d cost you around $500,000 in a year when Fred and Sandy say the payroll will be around $100 million?
Of course you would.
In 2012 the Mets owe Santana $24 million. Bay gets $18.1 and Wright $15.250.
That’s $57,350,000 and there’s only three players on your team.
I’m going to grant you that Reyes and his friendly agent decide they really love New York and don’t want Carl Crawford money even though he’s 28, it’s his one payday, and he’s having a year where he’s in the MVP conversation. The Mets will sign Reyes.
How much will Reyes settle for? To make my math easy I’m going to pay him 12-something to get our 2012 payroll to a nice even $70 million.
So now there are 4 players on the Mets and $30 million to go around for the other 21.
RA has a contract for $4.75 and Carrasco for $1.2 million. So now we’re at $77 million with 19 players to go.
Fortunately for you Ike, Niese, Thole, Beato, Duda and Dan Murphy are all making like $420,000-$430,000 this year. I guess they get some kind of raise, I don’t know how that works, but they surely aren’t $10 million players at this stage which is a good thing.
The Mets will need budget friendly players if they are going to hit that $100m payroll with warm bodies, never mind All-Stars. The only other ways to make it work are to not re-sign Reyes or to deal Wright.
Which gets us back to that second baseman.
His name is Dan Murphy.
I understand he can be adventurous out there….but I watched a team win a World Series with Kevin Mitchell playing SS 24 times. Have you seen Kevin Mitchell?
Why isn’t Murphy playing second base every day to develop in a season WHERE THEY AREN’T MAKING THE PLAYOFFS?
Sandy Alderson has tried twice now to tell you that they aren’t making the playoffs, but God love you all, you still believe.
The Mets are 54-51. The Braves are 61-44.
The Braves are 29 wins away from 90. With 57 games remaining as I write this around 8pm they can go 29-28 (.508 baseball) to get to 90.
The Mets also have 57 games remaining. They would need to 36-21 the rest of the way which is .631 ball. The only team playing .631 ball in the majors is the Phillies, at exactly .631 (That’s a 102 game clip).
Of course while you are hunting down the Braves and playing .631 ball, the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Pirates are also playing baseball. The Pirates play the Cardinals 10 more times. Guess what, someone is going to win those games. Those are at least 5 guaranteed wins for a team in front of you. The Pirates also play Arizona three. All days on which only bad things can happen to the Mets.
It doesn’t mean I don’t like the Mets or don’t root…it means that although I’m sure Sandy & the Wilpons would love to accidentally make the playoffs, they know it’s unlikely. The playoff dream has been over since 5-13…the proof being that they are 49-38 since then (which by the way is still only .563 ball) and they are still 7 back.
If they aren’t making the playoffs, and they aren’t trading Wright, and there’s no way you pass on inexpensive Davis (even I don’t start Murphy over Ike) then you are being short-sighted in not giving Murphy innings at second base.
Justin Turner is having a nice year, but the thought of not finding a home for the third best hitter in the league who happens to be extremely budget friendly seems nutty to me.
When they can bring Nick Evans back they should…play Evans at first (you have a solution for 2012), Murphy at second and Duda in RF every day (same logic, see what you got.) Let Turner be the guy who gives the other infielders a day off (get a first baseman’s glove Justin.)
If they happen to play .631 ball hooray…but if that was the goal then why is Beltran in SF?
Play Murph at second.
The things that twists my stomach is Jason Bay and his contract; I was never a fan of the signing, and today I wondered how much his contract was worth; ugh!
Great article as usual! I was having this discussion the other day as to why they are keeping murphy at 1st or even at 3rd when Wright was out. The only conclusion i could come up with was they were showcasing him at his stronger positions for a trade because upper management doesnt view him as a piece of the future. I dont know how a lefty that hits lefties and bats .300 while making under $1 million per couldnt be useful for a team with a glaring need at 2b and budget issues but so it goes with our beloved Mets.
!00’s of fly balls, Murphy is in the OF next year,It is easier to play and less important to have good defense there, If he doesn’t hit 300 he can be the supersub.
if the Mets fall out of it (they haven’t) they’ll get him some time there. I don’t think the Mets are as panicked about Murphy’s defense or position as fans and talk radio hosts are. he’ll be fine.
also, Payroll will likely be welllll above 100 million. probably closer to 130. Which leaves plenty of room for 7 million raise for Reyes, and possibly an outfield and some pitching. the Mets don’t actually need that much.
The Mets desperately need more and better pitching. There is no way you win a championship of any type with the 12th-best ERA in the National League and the 21st in baseball.
What the Mets have now is serviceable and great if you just want to hang around .500, but that’s the extent of it. They’ll be respectable and they won’t get hammered every time out; in fact they put together strings of really good outings here and there. The problem is, there are also strings of equally bad outings.
In the rotation, Niese & Gee have great potential, but they’re just starting to hit their strides and are only 2 guys regardless. Who knows what you’ll get from Santana at this point or for how long you’ll get it. I love Dickey, but over the long haul, he’s just a really cool average pitcher. Cap’s a guy you pulled off the scrap heap just hoping he could give you something. Pelfrey (much like the team as a whole in recent seasons) is in a perpetual state of “next year” without ever quite getting there. The bullpen is a complete craps shoot every night.
They’re both streaky, but I feel much better about the offense right now than the pitching.
Dickey is a 5th starter with charisma. Pelfrey – Scott Boras client. Not showing growth. Wouldn’t be shocked if Sandy gets him out of here this off-season.