Mark It Down – Mets Are Practically DONE

What? It’s only May! How can I make such a bold and rash statement. The Mets obviously don’t believe it, they keep saying it’s still early and thay aren’t panicing yet.

Well wake-up guys, baseball is a game of numbers and the numbers don’t lie. The chances of you making the playoffs at this point are slim.

Since 1996, the first full season under the expanded playoff format, 63 of the 96 playoff teams were already in a playoff position (division leader or wild card) on Memorial Day. Only 34% of teams that made the playoffs in the last 12 years overtook other teams after Memorial Day.

It doesn’t get better. Teams that were able to come back and make the post-season were an average of 4 games back in the Wild Card standings on Memorial Day. As of Monday, the Mets found themselves 5.5 out. Only 10 of the 96 playoff teams were 5.5 or more games out at this time – or 10.4%

What about if we look at just the National League, because we know the leagues are very different. At first it does look a bit better – there has been slightly more more volatility as almost 40% of playoff teams were not in position on Memorial Day, including all 4 last year.

But just like before, if we look deeper at the numbers the story only gets worse for the Mets. The average position for these 19 teams was 3.5 games out of the WC. Furthermore, only 5 NL teams – the 96 Cards (6.5), 03 Marlins (8.5), 05 Astros (10.0), 07 Cubs (6.5), and 07 Rockies (5.5) – overcame deficits equal to or greater than the Mets current position.

It’s not just about how many games behind you are though, but also how many teams are in front of you. The 19 NL teams that came back after Memorial Day held an average of 5th place in the WC standings – the Mets are currently in 8th.

What does all this mean? Unless management does something dramatic to turn this team around (such as getting rid of Willie for starters), the last game at Shea Stadium really will be September 29th.

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Mets Phony Attendance Numbers

Thanks to Metswalkoffs for tipping me off to this story I had missed. Filip Bondy must read the Mets Police (I take credit for everything) – he wrote a nice article about the phony attendance figures they announce. Over on the left scroll down the archives to April and you’ll see a few postings about that – as the mainstream media knows, bloggers are a bunch of kooks who never write anything meaningful, right?

Anyway a month later, Bondy writes:

The Mets have been adding pretend fans in tens of thousands, each and every night. At their last two games, announced attendances of 51,489 and 47,093 weren’t just exaggerations. They were dreamy fabrications.

I am not a stupid sportswriter. I know that these are supposed to be ticket sale numbers, not an exact turnstile count, and that there inevitably are some no-shows. But the Mets would require a 40% no-show rate to make this believable, and their crowd is working class. Very few Met fans are going to buy expensive tickets and then watch the game on television.

I was at these two games and personally witnessed entire, vast regions of the upper deck devoid of life. This is a stadium that seats 55,601. There were no more than 35,000 fans in the park on Monday, and no more than 25,000 on Tuesday.

A 40% no show rate would be incredible. The Mets Police are attending tonight’s game with camera in hand to do some research and will report on Friday. I hope to see Fred Wilpon there rooting on his Brooklyn Dodgers.

Tangent: when they first did Jackie Robinson night, why didn’t the Dodgers wear B hats at Shea. Fred would’ve loved it. I digress…back to attendancegate.
I do think there are a lot of fans who overbought tickets for whatever reason. Just yesterday I heard of three people who couldn’t give tickets away. In the upper deck I have overheard conversations about people stubhubbing tickets (hey scalping is official now!) or just “eating” tickets.
The weather has been awful and Shea’s not even that nice when it’s 85 and sunny. Of course a smart franchise would have built a retractable dome….

Hit metswalkoffs (and thanks for the heads up guys – bloggers unite!)
http://metswalkoffs.blogspot.com/

>Bob Sheppard Hopes to Return July 1, Open New Stadium

>Bob Sheppard was interviewed by BustedHalo.com and dropped this great news!

My target date to be back is July 1. There is an All Star Game to be played at Yankee Stadium on July 15th and one of my goals is to be there and announce it. I did one years and years ago at Yankee Stadium but I can’t recall it. So now this would be something to remember. I do want to be there next year when we open a new Stadium. And I’d like to be the one who says, “Good Afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen…Welcome to the NEW…Yankee Stadium.”

Halo worked hard on this one – so check out the full read here:

http://www.bustedhalo.com/features/BobSheppardInterview.htm


Bob Sheppard Hopes to Return July 1, Open New Stadium

Bob Sheppard was interviewed by BustedHalo.com and dropped this great news!

My target date to be back is July 1. There is an All Star Game to be played at Yankee Stadium on July 15th and one of my goals is to be there and announce it. I did one years and years ago at Yankee Stadium but I can’t recall it. So now this would be something to remember. I do want to be there next year when we open a new Stadium. And I’d like to be the one who says, “Good Afternoon Ladies and Gentlemen…Welcome to the NEW…Yankee Stadium.”

Halo worked hard on this one – so check out the full read here:

http://www.bustedhalo.com/features/BobSheppardInterview.htm


>Torre Back To Not Manage Mets

>There will be two managers at Shea tonight. One will get booed terribly (including by me as I will be there). One will be cheered.

You kids that don’t know who Lee Mazzilli is probably think I photoshopped the photo on the left. Nope kids, Joe Torre once managed the Metsies, and he was awful. Not that he had anything to work with. Craig Swan, Steve Henderson and a bunch of other guys you’ve never heard of.

Anyways, take another look at the picture and ask yourself (or Omar if you happen to see him) – why isn’t this a current picture of the Mets manager. Maybe with a little less hair, maybe wearing 6 not 9 – but why didn’t they call Joe five minutes after his press conference announcing he was leaving the Yankees. The Mets could have had a manager that got his team to the postseason every year (the Mets have every financial advantage the Yankees do, so stop whining about that). Joe even had to manage from an awful start, say being 6.5 back on Memorial Day.

It’s too late now, but I’ll be cheering for the manager tonight, just not the one in the first base dugout.

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